- U.S. Nov. CPI (MoM): 0.3%
- U.S. Nov. CPI (YoY): 2.7%
- U.S. Nov. Core CPI (MoM): 0.3%
- U.S. Nov. Core CPI (YoY): 3.3%
Core Price Index numbers came inline with estimates (no surprises!), although they are higher than the prior month (~0.1 higher for YoY and MoM not non-core). Markets have been responding favorably today and we are likely to have strong month for risk assets to cap out the year.
I think the Fed cut of 25bp still seems likely, though it remains to be seen if sentiment will be hawkish.
The Contrarian view: suggests that inflation may be on an upward trend, with November figures above 2%—the Fed’s target—and higher than those from October and September. Additionally, the real economy remains strong, and unemployment is solid. This raises questions about whether the Fed might be tempted to pause rate cuts sooner than January.